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                                                                                                                                                                          真正的澳门永利网址:纺织服装行业:消费承压,板块配置方向再梳理

                                                                                                                                                                            机构:东吴证券

                                                                                                                                                                            投资要点

                                                                                                                                                                            1 月 21 日即将披露 12 月社零数据,综合考虑各个企业 18Q4 的终端零售情况,社零数字难言乐观,叠加 18 年 Q1 消费的高基数效应,预计消费探底的趋势仍将延续数个月。

                                                                                                                                                                            在此宏观消费偏弱的背景下,值得关注的领域主要有:

                                                                                                                                                                            (1)仍然维持较高增速的新零售板块(20%+),基于效率改善产生的α值得持续关注,具备代表性的个股为南极电商、开润股份等;

                                                                                                                                                                            (2)市场对于消费走弱已有充分预期,因而给了我们在低估值高股息的支撑下,配置具备α的个股的机会,比如东吴 1 月金股地素时尚(5%+股息率、19 年 Q1&19 年全年确定性的业绩增速),再比如品牌逆势崛起、改革红利不断释放的波司登

                                                                                                                                                                            (3)以申洲国际为代表的优质制造商在大品牌供应链中的地位持续提升是过去制造板块的最大趋势性变化,海外布局已初具规模的制造龙头也将在贸易环境变局中占领竞争先机,我们持续看好具备全球布产能力的制造龙头。

                                                                                                                                                                            风险提示:宏观经济增速放缓导致终端消费疲软;原材料价格波动